Modeling

The Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) group within the Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) develops and uses an integrated modeling framework that combines human and earth systems to help understand how key aspects of society may evolve in the future and how they might interact with a changing climate. The integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science model, known as iPETS, is an Integrated Assessment Model under development by the IAM group that links three component models: a demographic model, an energy-economic model, and a simple climate and atmospheric composition model.

Demographic model

The Community Demographic Model (CDM) has four components designed to project population by age, gender, urban versus rural residence, and household type for at least 31 world regions, and the spatial distribution at grid-cell level. These projections serve as an input to the iPETS model, and can also be used for the broader climate research community to explore the implications of alternative population scenarios for emissions and impacts. Learn more about the demographic model.

Energy-economic model

The Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model is a global energy-economic model that provides the economic core of the iPETS model. It is a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with forward looking behavior, and projects economic growth, energy use, land use, and carbon emissions. Learn more about the energy-economic model.

Climate and atmospheric composition model

The Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) is a globally aggregated model of the carbon cycle, other greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the climate system that links with the PET model. There are several versions of ISAM with varying complexity. Currently iPETs links PET with the simpler version of ISAM, but work is underway to link to a more complex version. Learn more about the climate and atmospheric composition model.