Terms of reference

Overall goal: Facilitate improvements in the representation of the MJO in weather and climate models in order increase the predictive skill of the MJO and related weather and climate phenomena.

• Further development and promotion of process-oriented diagnostics/metrics that improve insight into the physical mechanisms for robust simulation/prediction of the MJO and that facilitate improvements in convective and other physical parameterizations relevant to the MJO.
• Develop, coordinate, and promote analyses of the multi-scale interactions that are a critical component of the MJO, both in observations and by exploiting recent advances in high-resolution modeling frameworks, with particular emphasis on vertical structure and diabatic processes.
• Promote the ongoing evaluation of real-time MJO forecasts. Expand efforts to develop and implement MJO forecast metrics under operational conditions, including a boreal summer focus and multi-model ensemble development.
• Develop an experimental modeling framework (e.g.,hindcast experiment/dataset) to assess MJO predictability as well as forecast skill of the MJO and closely related phenomena from contemporary/operational models.
• Interact with the proposed activity to simulate monsoon ISOs under the WCRP monsoon cross cut activity, including application of MJO diagnostics to outputs and integration of these simulations with the overall MJO experimental modeling framework.
• Organize workshops and meetings of opportunity to further the work of the Task Force.