CGD Special Seminar-Climate Emulators and Metamodels: A Framework for Probabilistic Coastal Flooding

Accurate and rapid assessment of extreme coastal inundation is crucial for mitigating risks in coastal communities. To capture the full complexity of compound flooding events and account for climate oscillations, weather-type-based emulators capable of generating realistic metocean climate realizations can be employed. These emulators leverage large-scale climatic patterns at the oceanic basin scale to analyze historical trends, allowing them to incorporate projected changes based on GCMs. By integrating these emulators with hybrid approaches that combine numerical modeling and data science, the computational effort required to study extreme events and coastal flooding can be significantly reduced. This framework enables probabilistic analysis of expected changes in local impacts, supporting more effective and informed decision-making.